Executive
Summary
Increasingly national governments are recognizing
that it is vital for their futures to ensure that innovation based
on science and technology is promoted to ensure economic growth
and an increase in the standard of living of their societies.
This means that policy decisions have to be made against a rapidly
changing background using information from a variety of sources
and in an atmosphere of participation and transparency. There
is a need for strategic policy intelligence for decision makers.
Strategic policy intelligence can be defined as: “the set
of actions to search, diffuse and protect information in order
to make it suitable to the right person at the right time in order
to make the right decision”.
This project has been a unique cooperative exercise
between ISTWG and EWG to provide strategic intelligence on future
fuel technologies for the APEC region. The technologies selected
for study were: hydrogen/fuel cells, conventional and unconventional
hydrocarbons and biofuels within the time frame to 2030. This
project has used Foresight as a systematic and participatory approach
to anticipate and manage change in energy futures in APEC, and
to develop effective policies and strategies for the medium- to
longer-term future. Foresight provides an alternative approach
to economic models which tend to underestimate the potential of
emerging technologies.
Scenario creation has been used to provide a
framework for understanding the role of emerging energy fuel technologies
in energy futures while technology roadmapping has enabled identification
of critical steps in development of these technologies. The aim
was not to produce a set of detailed roadmaps for selected technologies
but to develop a number of ambitious, but realistic, visions which
would assist planning for future developments by industry, researchers
and policy makers.
The major conclusions of the study are:
• There is no unique solution to the future
fuel needs of APEC economies. To ensure energy security an integrated
approach is needed in which various energy technologies can make
significant contributions. The roadmapping exercise has developed
technology roadmaps for three fuel areas and shown how they can
be used in an integrated approach.
• While the study has focused on only
three fuel areas, it is clear that development and application
of other energy technologies, e.g. photovoltaic arrays, wind turbines
and advanced nuclear power systems are important components of
an integrated energy approach.
• While there is current concern over
security of oil supplies the current and projected developments
of conventional oil production, together with the potential of
hydrocarbon liquids from unconventional sources, e.g. tar sands
and conversion of natural gas, have the potential to meet anticipated
needs, particularly for transport fuels, for the foreseeable future.
• For some economies with available agricultural resources,
liquid biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel) provide an opportunity
to ensure a considerable degree of energy security. Such fuels
can be readily incorporated into the existing transport fuel infrastructure.
Biofuels in the form of biomass can be used in stationary applications
for power production and heating.
• Fuel cells are likely to be applied
first in stationary applications for distributed power generation
using a variety of fuels. Reduction of cost and development of
small efficient systems should lead to their widespread application
later in vehicles. However hydrogen is likely to appear only as
a minor component of the energy mix in the late 2020s to 2030.
• The impact of a strong push to a low
carbon economy in response to concerns over climate change resulting
from continued greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion
could speed up the rate of development of alternative energy sources.
A complementary driving force for more rapid change is pressure
to reduce urban pollution and improve the health of urban dwellers.
• However, change will be incremental
as there is considerable inertia in bringing about shifts in energy
systems due to the very large investments involved and the long
life of major infrastructure. Over a 50 year time horizon for
a complete transition, there will be probably only one replacement
of major electricity generating plant and perhaps two to three
replacements of the motor vehicle fleet.
• Long term planning for overall energy infrastructure
must take into account the anticipated changes in fuel technologies.
Thus a steadily increasing share of electricity production from
distributed sources is likely as a result of moves to energy security;
this has considerable implications for grid operation and management.
• While oil prices have more than doubled
in 2005 similar price jumps have occurred in the 70s and 80s followed
by a decline in price. However the rapid and continuing economic
growth in the APEC region suggests that prices will stabilize
at a higher price of say US$35 per barrel by 2010. Such a price
favors both the continued development of hydrocarbon resources
and the development of alternative energy sources.
• The emphasis on research and development
of energy technologies will vary from one economy to another,
depending on their resource bases and their R and D capabilities.
There is a clear need for cooperation and exchange of research
information and personnel in materials and energy R&D within
APEC.
• Policymakers need to be conscious of
community attitudes to new energy technologies and ensure that
adequate steps are taken by their governments to communicate with
the general public on issues of health and safety, and environmental
impacts associated with such technologies, e.g. biofuels, hydrogen,
nuclear power.
This project is a contribution to a better understanding
of the possible energy futures facing APEC economies and of the
role of science and technology and industry in dealing with those
futures. It is a positive response to the directives of the APEC
Ministers of Science and of Energy for cooperation between ISTWG
and EWG. However it is only a beginning and there is a need for
further discussions on cooperative projects and for a continuing
dialogue between ISTWG and EWG in view of the rapidly changing
situation of energy security and technology development in the
APEC region.
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