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PROJECT FRAMEWORK
(Revised after the D&M Workshop)
Introduction
The ASEAN Technology Foresight and Scan
project is a project of the ASEAN Sub-Committee on S&T Infrastructure
and Resources Development, in cooperation with the National Science
and Technology Development Agency (NSTDA), Thailand as the project’s
executing agency. The project receives funding support from Japan-ASEAN
Exchange Programme (JAEP) for 253,851 US dollars to enable participation
of all ASEAN member countries to workshops, involvement of foresight
experts and consultants and publications.
The project aims to develop capability
in technology foresight amongst ASEAN member countries by building
up expertise through workshops and a pilot ASEAN foresight project
that is constituted by sub-projects in support from each member
country. It also aims to establish a regional network of “foresight
champions” who are regularly updated about foresight developments
worldwide and promote foresight activities in the ASEAN member countries,
and to initiate a bi-monthly newsletter on the subject to support
such activities. The project starts from July 2003 and lasts two
years.
Key elements of the project are three workshops,
a pilot ASEAN foresight project and bi-monthly newsletters. The
Design and Methodology Workshop was an inception meeting aiming
at introducing the project, demonstrating the value of foresight
and leading to an agreement on the ASEAN foresight project. The
ASEAN foresight project is a learning exercise of approximately
8 months long from January to August 2004 whereby each country team
conducts its own foresight and scan project and shares their learning
experience via the ASEAN newsletters and website. There is no funding
support for the national projects but some degree of technical assistance
from NSTDA might be possible upon request. The attendance at the
three workshops is however fully funded. Before the conduct of the
country project, a training workshop on foresight methodology and
project management will be organized between 15-19 December 2003
to provide competence in using a portfolio of tools and in managing
a foresight project effectively. The training workshop will be held
in Bangkok and attended by three leaders from each country’s
foresight project working group. By August 2004, most country projects
will be completed and in November 2004 in Bangkok, there will be
the final workshop for sharing the experience. Since the project
does not only aim at building capability but also creating an ASEAN
foresight network, bi-monthly newsletters and the project’s
website will be employed as a tool for communications and information
collection to keep interests of member countries on technology scan
and foresight developments throughout the project duration.
Foresight
By one definition, foresight “involves
systematic attempts to look into the future of science and technology,
society and the economy, and their interactions, in order to promote
social, economic and environmental benefits”. It is a process
of anticipating and managing change that requires systematic and
participatory approach to developing effective strategies and policies
for the medium- to longer-term future. It taps into the wisdom and
judgment of experts and other stakeholders and encourages shared
understanding amongst the stakeholders and strengthens networks.
Foresight is an effective and popular tool for developing consensus
amongst key stakeholders about science and technology priorities.
Science and technology are increasingly important for development
and underpin long-term economic competitiveness but it is hard for
governments and organizations to determine which areas of S&T
deserve support from limited funds. There are no easy answers but
developing an embedded foresight capability would assist planners
to be proactive in anticipating future developments, understand
how these may impact in the country and respond rapidly and effectively.
a) What is foresight?
Ten years ago, who knew that the coming
decade would bring a devastating economic crisis in the "boom
economies" of Asia, terrorist attacks at the heart of the world’s
superpower and the complete mapping of the human genome? We live
in a turbulent and uncertain world. Dealing with changing circumstances,
as well as with the fast pace of change today, is extremely difficult.
One response is to wait for events to
happen and then to react to them. Increasingly, however, governments,
businesses and organizations are realizing that if they stand still,
changes will leave them somewhere that they do not want to be. An
alternative is to be proactive by using foresight. Foresight is
a process of anticipating and managing change. It is a systematic
and participatory approach to developing effective strategies and
policies for the medium- to longer-term future.
Resting on a firm foundation of the best
information available, foresight taps into the wisdom and judgment
of experts and other stakeholders. Foresight encourages shared understanding
amongst the stakeholders and creates (or strengthens) networks.
Where differences of opinion and attitude are significant, the foresight
process can help different groups to understand each other’s
positions better.
Foresight began as a planning tool within
the science and technology sector. Its first users were especially
interested in priority-setting for science and technology investments.
This is still an important use for foresight, but technology is
now seen as just one of many factors that have an impact on societies
and sometimes it is only a minor issue in a foresight project. Foresight
is now being used far more widely, and its use in the APEC region
is increasing. This reflects a global trend – foresight has
become very popular in Europe and is now occurring on every single
continent in the world. Foresight has been used successfully to
tackle social, cultural and economic issues.
Foresight is not forecast – there is not one future to be
predicted or one direction to be determined. Foresight offers many
possible futures to be considered. Foresight is also not a one-time
process. It is a dynamic process that continues to look ahead to
anticipate the next changes. Foresight does not focus on day-to-day
"operational" concerns, although it can provide important
insights into how operations can be reformed to manage effectively
in a rapidly-changing world. It is not based on extrapolation of
existing patterns; it explicitly recognizes that the future is uncertain
and that seriously disruptive events can and will happen. Most importantly,
the goal of foresight is not just to prepare well for the future,
but also to take every opportunity to shape and create the future.
Foresight tackles questions such as:
- How can we increase our national competitiveness using
science and technology?
- How are our markets, our customers and our stakeholders
going to change over the next 5-10 years?
- What impacts are new technologies likely to have on
our organisation and its role?
- What is the future course of global warming?
- What skills and competencies should we be developing
for the future?
- What will be the demand for health, education or welfare
services over the next 10-20 years?
- How do we set priorities for our research and development
program?
b) The foundations of foresight
The development of foresight has been fuelled by trends
within three disciplines*:
(*Source: A Practical Guide to Regional Foresight.
http://foren.jrc.es)
1. Policy development
Decision-makers have started to recognize
the need to broaden the sources of input to policy development.
This is partly a reflection of the desire for greater democracy
and increased legitimacy for political processes. It also reflects
the recognition that knowledge and expertise is diffused more widely
and that the world is growing ever more complex, and, therefore,
narrow planning cannot be effective.
2. Strategic planning
There has been increasing dissatisfaction
with “rational” planning methods, which are based on
the assumption of steady progress in a fairly stable and predictable
world. For anyone looking more than a few years ahead, a planning
style that acknowledges high levels of uncertainty is essential.
3. Futures studies
There have been a number of important
developments in the methods of futures studies. One is a shift from
emphasis on predictive approaches to explorative ones. Another is
the recognition that "visions" developed in isolation
by futures experts have limited impact on decision-makers. If futures
work is to be effective, decision-makers must take part in the process
of developing these visions.
Drawing on the skills, perspectives and
methods of these three broad disciplines foresight can be used as
a powerful decision-shaper.
c) The key features of foresight
Five key features of foresight are:
- Structure, rigor, and creativity
Foresight is based on careful analysis
of the current situation, trends and expected impacts of possible
developments. Free-ranging discussion and debate are valuable but
they are not enough. A critical part of foresight is assessing and
putting together different sources of information and different
points of view. At some critical stages, foresight relies on the
power of imagination to think out different ways in which the future
may unfold. Scenario-planning is particularly designed to do this
but it is not an inevitable part of all foresight projects. If the
creative part of foresight is seen as the only important part, there
is a risk of trivializing the future, as much of foresight should
be based on real data and analysis. Equally, the need for innovative
approaches in the face of the unpredictable nature of the future
requires the use of some creativity.
Foresight methods are designed to expand
considerably the information sources and contributions to the planning
effort. Japan’s national technology forecasting surveys consult
several thousands of experts. The Thai project on developing a vision
of "S&T2020" included over one thousand people from
all sectors of the economy. But participation does not necessarily
mean large numbers – it refers more to the breadth of input.
Planning cannot be left to the planners alone, but must include
representatives of all people who have relevant expertise and all
those with a keen interest in the outcomes. This broad group is
often referred to as "stakeholders". One of the first
steps in any foresight project is establishing who should be involved
("stakeholder mapping") and what the best tools for involving
them are.
- Focus on the medium to longer term
The purpose of exploring the future with
foresight is to inform current decisions. What decisions should
we take now (or soon) to have the best chance of being in a good
position in say, 10 years time? What might happen over the next
10 years that we need to watch out for and be prepared to deal with?
Most foresight projects look about 10-20 years ahead. Foresight
projects very rarely look further ahead than 50 years, since beyond
that time there is just too much uncertainty for explorations to
yield useful insights. For a very short timeframe (say, under 5
years) traditional tools of action planning and strategic planning
may be sufficient.
- Interest in the interactions between science, technology,
economy, society and environment
Foresight examines a wide range of factors
and draws on knowledge from multiple disciplines. Foresight works
towards "big-picture" or "macro" level goals
such as improved quality of life or increased economic competitiveness
which depend on the interactions of many factors.
- Intention to lead to action
Foresight is a waste of resources unless
it leads to action. Foresight needs at least some political support,
even if it has to manage opposition (for example, from "traditional"
planners who see it as a threat to their role, or just too much
extra work).
d) What techniques are used in foresight studies?
Successful foresight projects are designed
to suit specific circumstances and objectives. Many techniques are
used within foresight studies for consulting experts, gathering
information and generating innovative ideas. No single technique
alone can lead to a successful foresight project. Many techniques
must be carefully integrated into a coherent overall foresight project
design. Techniques commonly used in foresight studies include:
- Scenario-workshops
- Delphi surveys
- Road-mapping
- Mind-mapping
- SWOT analysis
- Cross-impact analysis
- Critical technologies identification
- Relevance trees
- Morphological analysis
- Patent analysis
All these techniques are used in other
types of planning as well. However, these techniques may be used
differently in foresight studies. For example, "best-case",
"worst-case" or "business-as-usual" scenarios
are of very limited value to foresight projects as the emphasis
is on alternative scenarios that are all plausible but which highlight
different sets of issues.
e) The three challenges* of foresight
(*Source: Professor Ortwin Renn, Centre of Technology Assessment
in Baden-Wurttemberg)
Foresight addresses three major challenges presented by
the future:
-
Complexity:
Cause and effect relationships are not always obvious. There
may be many reasons for this – causal factors may interact,
there may be long time delays between the causes and effects,
there may be inter-societal differences, intervening variables
and other problems. Many experts argue that the world is becoming
ever more complex due to the pace of technological change and
the greater global interconnectedness of financial and economic
systems.
-
Uncertainty:
Many relationships are too complex to unravel completely. Even
simple relationships may be associated with high uncertainty
if the knowledge base does not exist or if people are powerless
to affect the outcome. In many situations, there are factors
that are unknown but potentially ‘knowable’; thus
the term ‘residual uncertainty’ is sometimes preferred
to indicate that the foresight process needs to deal with the
uncertainty that remains once the best possible analysis has
been completed.
-
Ambiguity:
Differing interpretations of identical information and data
are possible because people have different interests and beliefs.
The differences may not be about the available information but
instead about the policy decisions and actions that should follow.
For example, if the risks of using a particular technology are
highly uncertain, Person 1 may argue that we should not take
the risk of using it, while Person 2 may say there is no evidence
of risk so we can go ahead. Ambiguity is more likely where there
is high complexity and high uncertainty, but it is also possible
where the underlying science is quite simple.
f) What are the benefits of foresight?
The benefits of foresight are both intangible
and tangible. The intangible benefits that arise from the foresight
process itself include:
- Increased receptiveness to signals of change and improved
readiness to address changes.
- Greater knowledge and better judgment about how to use
resources.
- More agile minds and organizations that are able to
provide rapid, mature and effective responses to change through
understanding the forces shaping the future
- Improved effectiveness of networks of individuals and
organizations to address change together.
Tangible benefits arise from outputs.
These outputs provide guidelines for action and evaluation and include
products such as:
- Reports and recommendations
- Priority lists
- Roadmaps
- Strategies
- Scenarios
- New partnerships
g) Who uses foresight in the Asia-Pacific Region?
Many APEC members such as Japan, Australia,
South Korea, Malaysia and New Zealand have chosen to run comprehensive
national foresight programs. National foresight for specific sectors
also occurs, such as a Thai foresight study of the future for agriculture.
The newest national foresight programs in the APEC region are in
Peru and Vietnam, which are just embarking on their first sectorial
foresight projects on textiles and food-processing respectively.
Smaller scale foresight work, at the level
of a province or department, is a growth area in this region. An
enormous amount of focused foresight work is currently going on
at these levels. It is more difficult to find out about these projects,
but they are potentially a rich source of information about how
to use foresight effectively. It has been suggested that these focused
foresight projects can provide clearer, more practical outcomes
and can translate more easily into policy than larger-scale, more
abstract foresight projects.
Today, foresight is also being used by more organizations
to assess their future and to transform their programs.
Foresight was used by:
- Royal Dutch Shell, to anticipate the collapse of the
Soviet Union
- Singapore, to develop its biotechnology strategy
- Japan, to explore the potential contributions of technology
to social needs
- US Pacific Gas and Electric, to prepare for earthquakes
in California
- Australia, to prioritize its agricultural research
- Global distillers, to determine the future market for
alcoholic drinks in Asia
- Thailand, to establish a vision of science and technology
for development to the year 2020
- APEC, to tackle the issue of sustainable transport in
mega-cities
- Food processors in Vietnam, to plan the penetration
of their products into world markets
Key Elements of the Project
1. Awareness Development and Consensus Building on the
Project
The Design and Methodology Workshop (D&M
Workshop) was conducted on 4-5 August 2003 in Hanoi. It was an inception
meeting for delegates of ASEAN member countries for this project.
The purpose of the workshop was to introduce the project and demonstrate
the value of foresight activities, set the basis for an ASEAN foresight
network and decide on an appropriate topic for an ASEAN foresight
project. The discussion outlined concern of some delegates that
they could not instantly give commitment to a topic for their countries
and needed to bring back to discuss with potential partners. A new
framework for topic selection was therefore developed that allows
each country to select a topic that fits its best interest and resources
while centering around the theme on S&T human resource development.
Delegates of each country will identify the topic of their choice
by 15 October and communicate with the Executing Agency, NSTDA,
who will try to cluster similar topics, as much as possible.
The meeting agreed upon the new criteria
that the selected topic should a) involves a strong S&T component,
b) requires human resource investment to develop innovative capacity,
c) be suitable for foresight learning exercise of 8 months long
and d) takes a 10 year time horizon.
2. Provision of Access to the Tools and Practical Management
Process
The Training Workshop, 15-19 December
2003 in Bangkok will provide understanding of foresight principles,
how to select and apply different tools to a project, and foresight
project management. The running of the workshop will be responsive
to the participants, structured with mini-foresight exercise that
will lead participants to experience the project design and management
to pursue the national project. Three participants from each country
project will be invited to attend the workshop. Participants are
requested to prepare a list of resources and skills required to
conduct foresight on their topic.
Workshop elements include:
- An overview of the major forces shaping the socio-economic
future
- Introduction and detailed "hands-on" exercises
in the application of selected foresight tools
- Foresight case studies
- Planning and implementing foresight studies
- Developing organizational and national foresight capabilities
Participants: Three from each member country;
one project coordinator from the D&M Workshop and two other
topic experts in the national working team.
Expected outcomes: The national working teams understand foresight
methodology and practices thoroughly. They design their projects
and draft working plan in the workshop in consultation with the
foresight experts and colleagues from other countries.
3. Conduct of the ASEAN foresight project
The ASEAN foresight project is a learning
exercise of approximately 8 months long from January to August 2004
that each country conducts its own foresight and scan project in
its home country on their topic and shares their learning experience
along the process via newsletters and website. Conduct of the ASEAN
foresight project aims at demonstrating the value of foresight and
building foresight capability. The duration of studies could vary
from country to country depending on project scale, complication
of issues, level of support from stakeholders and country funding.
It should be noted that there will be no funding support for the
country’s study but some degree of technical assistance from
the executing agency might be possible upon request. In November
2004 in Bangkok, there will be a final 2-day meeting of the project
for the sharing of experience in conducting the country projects
and the outcomes.
Participants: The same group of participants
from the second training workshop.
Expected outcomes: 1) New understanding on the topics studied and
its implications on ASEAN, 2) increased foresight capability of
ASEAN countries and 3) strengthened ASEAN foresight network.
4. Development of an ASEAN foresight network of ‘foresight
champions’
The project aims to create an ASEAN foresight
network through workshops and the pilot project. In addition, a
bi-monthly newsletter will be initiated to update about foresight
developments worldwide and progress of country projects and to promote
foresight activities within each country. The bi-monthly electronic
and fax newsletter will be provided every two months for over 2
years (12 issues) and edited by the executing agency. Its success
depends very much on contributions from all ASEAN countries. The
National Institute for Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), Japan
has kindly agreed to contribute 6 articles for over 2 years. Each
country is requested to contribute a few articles over the project
duration which could be relevant to the country’s project
such as project overview, progress update, final outcomes or the
country’s other foresight-related activities and events.
Foresight Experts and Supporting Institutions
Funding for ASEAN Participation
The project receives funding support from Japan-ASEAN Exchange Programme
(JAEP) that covers return air fare, per diem and incidental travel
costs for ASEAN representatives to three workshops of the project.
It should be noted that the project has no funding for national
projects.
Contact for more information: NSTDA, the executing agency
Dr Chatri Sripaipan (project leader)
Vice-President
National Science and Technology Development Agency (NSTDA)
73/1 Rama VI Road, Rajdhevee, Bangkok 10400, Thailand
Email: chatri@nstda.or.th
Fax: 662 644 8191 Tel: 662 644 8150 Ext. 703
Ms Kasina Limsamarnphun
Assistant Policy Researcher
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
National Science and Technology Development Agency (NSTDA)
73/1 Rama VI Road, Rajdhevee, Bangkok 10400, Thailand
Email: apectf@nstda.or.th
Fax: 66 2 644 8191 Tel: 662 644 8150 Ext. 713
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