Post Genomic
Welcome to the APEC Center for Technology Foresight (APEC CTF). The APEC Center for Technology Foresight, a Center established and supported through ISTWG and hosted by Thailand, has successfully completed 5 APEC-wide foresight projects. Developments in gene technology and their applications were noted as a very high priority for ISTWG members in a 1997-survey of opinions of important topics for foresight studies. Since that time, ISTWG has supported a number of biotechnology projects, and has expressed the view that a foresight project of gene technology would be timely and valuable.
FORESIGHT STUDIES ON POST GENOMIC AND HUMAN HEALTH
Not surprisingly the implications of the developments discussed above have prompted many people to speculate on the future of Post Genomic and human health. A number of national Foresight studies have highlighted issues for their countries using various techniques. Two of considerable interests are the Delphi survey and scenario creation.
The study identified 12 key drivers shaping Post Genomics over the next 15 years. In order of importance, they were: functionality of Post Genomic, regulation of genomics, business forces and beyond, Post Genomic itself, politics and geopolitics, demand, social attitudes, social mobilization, governance of knowledge, events, risk, and environment. Based on these inputs and an overview paper on genomics and its application (Rowley 2002), four scenarios were constructed (Justman et al 2002). Abstracts of these are:
In Genomics Inc, social science would consider impacts of Post Genomic on various sectors of society, concepts of well-being ethics and use of Post Genomic by the National Health Service in UK, the new industrial structure and property rights, as well as the growing divide to which Post Genomic would contribute.
In Broken Promises, as Post Genomic fails repeatedly, social science research contributions come through re-evaluation of the notion of progress; research on alternative lifestyles and product use; better understanding of political change; new concepts of risk.
In Out of Our Control, China takes the lead in Post Genomic research and applications in the face of more stringent regulation in developed countries. Social science would consider the comparative advantage and disadvantage of states and their relations to multi-national companies and the nature of international organization.
In Genomics for All, social science research supports the development of international institutions that can regulate bio-weapons; the identification of Post Genomic products and applications that will support equity and sustainability; the comparative analysis of scientific and social change using information and communication technologies.
Discussion of scenarios at a workshop in London in early 2002 identified research issues related to Post Genomic that would benefit from social science inputs.
This Post Genomic study is a unique opportunity to consider the current state of Post Genomic and human health and the future implications for the APEC region.
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