Report on : Tools to Manage the Future: A Portfolio Approach An international foresight training workshop presented by the APEC Center for Technology Foresight, in Bangkok 18-22 February 2002. Lead Facilitator: Prof Ron Johnston Executive Director, Australian Center for Innovation, University of Sydney and member of the International Advisory Board of the APEC CTF Summary After more than a year of planning, marketing and organising, the efforts and hopes of the APEC Center for Technology Foresight (CTF) and Prof Johnston were richly rewarded with an exciting and productive training workshop. The international character and high calibre of the participants was especially note-worthy. Though the target was 20, the course eventually ran with 29 people from 11 countries (including 7 APEC member economies). They ranged from young postgraduate students to government officials at the highest levels. The goup included many foresight beginners but also a small but significant number with considerable expertise based on leadership roles in their national or organisational foresight efforts, whose main concern seemed to be to increase their repertoire of methods and learn from the experiences and ideas of the facilitators and other participants. Many but by no means all of the participants were interested in S&T issues, and foresight for national and organisational development, for human resource development, and for education and social planning were all considered too. Part 1   focussed on explaining and assessing 5 key foresight methods and describing how to select and combine these into a real foresight study. It included sessions on: The Challenge of the Future / Introduction to the Portfolio of Tools / Environmental Scanning / Modelling and Trend Analysis / Delphi Polling / Technology Roadmapping / Scenario Planning / Logistics of Future Management Exercises / Implementing the Findings of Future Management Exercises / and / Summation and Evaluation of Future Management. The course was designed by Prof Johnston who also undertook almost all of the teaching. Part 2   provided the opportunity for engaging in a detailed application of appropriate tools to an issue chosen by the participant. In the space of two intensive days, the following stages were completed: clarification and refinement of the issue / review and selection of tools appropriate to the issue / development of a plan to conduct the future management exercise, including logistics, stakeholder identification, interface with strategy and policy, and budget / design of a detailed management plan to apply the future management tools / development of a strategy and plan for implementation. In practice, participants worked on their own or in small self-selected groups and consulted the facilitators when they felt the need. There was also some (optional) sharing of ideas, plans and perspectives. The workshop took place at the luxurious Pathuwam Princess Hotel in central Bangkok. Most participants also stayed there, though 4 participants chose more modest accommodation on the nearby campus of Chulalongkorn University, and some of the participants were local. The schedule ran from 8.30am-5.30pm each day and overnight ‘homework’ was also set. Each session of part 1 included small group work such as a simulation exercise of the technique being addressed, with some time for feedback and full-group discussion at the end. It was clear that the course was hard work for all concerned, but there were 2 social occasions in the evenings for more relaxed interaction, and in part 2, participants worked at their own pace. Course certificates were presented on completion. Further details of the event are provided below in the following sub-sections: A.Evaluation table B. A Selection of Comments from the Evaluation Forms C.Some examples of the projects planned by Participants in Part 2. D. List of Participants A) Evaluation Table At the end of the workshop, participants were asked to complete a simple evaluation form and the results are summarised below. However during the workshop, feedback on the learning experience was obtained in many different ways. For example, there was discussion at the end of each session and at the beginning of each day. Participants were also asked to complete forms each evening about: ‘what have I learnt? what questions do I need answers to ? what issues or areas would be worth learning more about? ’. At the end of Part 1, they were also asked to evaluate their own learning and to create a personal future foresight program. All of this information contributed to the CTF’s internal assessment of the workshop and will be used to inform planning and design of the next one. Where  very good=4 / good=3 / fair=2 / poor=1 Program Average Response 1.Content 3.8 2. Time schedule 3.2 3. Materials provided 3.7 4. Opportunity to participate 3.6 5. Information and knowledge obtained 3.4 6. Expected future utilization of information and knowledge obtained 3.6     7. Communication between you and the facilitators during the workshop 3.5 8. Communication between you and the organizers before the workshop 3.2 9. Communication between you and the organizers during the workshop 3.5 Other   10. Environment 3.4 11. Meals and other refreshments 3.3 12. Other facilities 2.8 B) A Selection of Comments from the Evaluation Forms 1. Bravo to the whole team who organised this workshop – perfectly done. 2. THANK YOU!! This is a very intellectually stimulating experience. Thank you Ron and all facilitators and staff for making these three days fun, informative and useful event. Please let me know of other related workshops in the future. I’ll certainly attend your events again. 3. It will be desirable that we can have more case study and examples such as at the national level, industry-specific, firm-specific etc.Thank you so much. 4. A very big ‘well done’ and ‘thanks’ to Ron and all the team. This was just mind-blowing. 5. The workshop is very good for understand how the available tools work and apply. What I want to know more is how to make use of the technology foresight result for S&T Policy and Strategy development. It should be a workshop after this one to deal with policy / strategy making. 6. I would like to keep long-term relationship with all the participants, facilitators and organizers. It seems that everyone have their own plan in implementing foresight at their national / company level. So it will be beneficial to all of us to keep exchanging our experience including problems and challenges. 7. Gain a very valuable experience and knowledge on foresighting. A very fruitful training indeed. 8. The workshop come timely for me as I will be leading the process of developing a new R&D program for my institution. Some examples of the projects planned by Participants in Part 2. foresight for national development planning, especially aiming to diversify the economic base and identify ‘niche’ opportuntities for a ‘late-comer’. foresight for environmental technologies aimed at enabling SMEs from the participant’s country to increase their penetration of global markets (especially Asia) over next 5 years. preliminary planning for the next round of a National Technology Foresight program, aiming to address the limitations of ‘Delphi’ and incorporate some additional tools. foresight to develop the R&D strategy of an industrial research and technology development center for the next 5-10 years, beginning with the agro-processing area. refinement of the terms of reference for a national foresight study foresight for a small island state, to identify ICT niches in order to become a ‘cyber-island’. revamping a national foresight program which had stalled; redesigning an effective national foresight structure and associated training and awareness program; planning a first foresight study foresight by a national planning organisation, to identify R&D priorities and competitive ‘niches’ in the tourism and mining sectors, taking into account environmental concerns. a foresight study of the long-term implications of gene technology in the post-genomic era. Conclusion CTF views this workshop as a great success. It was an excellent learning experience that fulfilled the core mandate of the CTF to promote and develop foresight expertise around the region. It attracted a very good number of participants from 11 different countries (7 APEC economies) and was revenue positive. Valuable follow-up activities for both the CTF and the participants were generated. Thus the CTF, with Prof Johnston, decided to repeat the training workshop next year. There will be some minor modifications to the program and content of sessions, based on the feedback provided by participants. The first announcement of the workshop “Tools to Manage the Future – 2003” will be released in May 2002. PARTICIPANTS BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Dr Hajah Hairuni Binti Haji Mohd Ali Maricar Dean, Faculty of Literature and Social Science and Senior Lecturer Department of Geography University of Brunei Darussalam CANADA Mr Benyoucef Assen Senior Business Analyst Canadian Institute for Market Intelligence NRC-IRAP Network Dr. Jack Smith Planning and Assessment National Research Council CANADA / THAILAND Mr Walter Pickering President Asian Institute for Market Intelligence (Bangkok) HONG KONG Dr Craig Blurton Associate Professor Centre for the Advancement of University Teaching The University of Hong Kong KOREA Mr Dae Seoung Koh Senior Researcher Korea Institute of Science & Technology Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP) Dr Kichul Lim Research Fellow Science & Technology Policy Institute (STEPI) Mr Keun Ha Chung Head, Department of Foresight and Assessment, National S&T Planning Center, Korea Institute of Science & Technology Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP) Mr Jungwon Lee Associate Research Fellow Science & Technology Policy Institute (STEPI) MALAWI Mr Christopher W. Guta Director-General Malawi Industrial Research & Technology Development Centre MALAYSIA Ms Monaliza Zaidel IT Manager Public Works Department, Sarawak, Ms Sabariah Putit Director, Human Resource Development Chief Minister's Department, Sarawak Mr. Zakwan Zabidi Assistant Manager Technology & Industry development Malaysian Industry Government Group for High -Technology (MIGHT) Mr. Thean Lip Shein Deputy Director (S&T) Policy & Planning, MOSTE Mr. Zulkifli bin Majid Principal Assistant Director (S&T) Policy & Planning MOSTE Mr. Sakib bin Kusimi Principal Assistant Director (S&T) Research, MOSTE Mr Khoh Joo Bee Principal Assistant Director (S&T) Development, Science & Technology Division MOSTE Assoc. Prof. Ahmad Rahman Songip General Manager Global Technology & Innovation Management (GTIM) Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Dr Norlela Ariffin Managing Consultant Industrial Consultatin Malaysia (PRIMA) MALTA Mr Wilfred Kenely Chief Executive Officer Malta Council for Science and Technology MAURITIUS Mr. Ram Hittoo Economist, Financial Services and Corporate Affairs Ministry of Economic Development PERU Mr Fernando Ortega Head, Innovation and Technology Foresight Office National Council of Science & Technology (CONCYTEC) TANZANIA Mr. Titus Mteleka Director for Science and Technology Ministry of Science, Technology and Higher Education THAILAND/USA Dr Chalintorn Burian Regional Director, Southeast Asian Institute of International Education THAILAND Dr Korntham Sathirakul Department of Science Service, MOSTE Dr Nares Damrongchai Policy Researcher, Biotechnology Policy Study Program, BIOTEC Mr Phalang Chansom Bangkok Ms Phensoame Assakul (Fai) Institute for Manufacturing, Cambridge University (PhD student) Dr Witaya Jeradechakul Executive Director, APEC Center for Technology Foresight

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