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Report of
"Tools for Managing the Future: a Portfolio Approach"
23-27 February 2004
Amari Watergate Hotel
Bangkok, Thailand
The year
2004 is the third successive year that the APEC Center for Technology
Foresight and Prof Ron Johnston of Australian Centre for Innovation organized
the international training workshop on Tools for Managing the Future:
A Portfolio Approach.
The workshop attracted 18 participants from 6 economies
and 1 country; Brunei Darussalam, China, Chinese Taipei, Iran, Japan,
Malaysia and Thailand. All 18 participants attended Part I of the workshop
from 23-25 February that was an intensive training in foresight methodology
and appropriate use of selected key tools, and 8 stayed for Part II from
26-27 February to exercise on applying the knowledge from the first part
to designing a foresight project of their own choice.
The workshop has tremendously been improved from the
first year. This year, a new session, “A Case Exercise in Foresight”
was introduced at the beginning of the workshop to provide an illustration
of many factors to be taken into account in the design and conduct of
a successful foresight study: a respond to recommendation from the 2003
cohort. The introduction part of the course was also made more concise
with the merging of sessions on “The Challenge of the Future”
and “The Portfolio of Tools”. Many new case studies and reading
materials were added in the manual that was highly appraised by participants.
Various forms of evaluation were conducted at the end
of the workshop to ensure quality of the evaluation. They included a workshop
evaluation form, a self-evaluation achievement form and an open-ended
questionnaire on final summation.
Evaluation suggested high satisfaction on the course.
Overall content of the course was rated at an average of 3.47 from a full
scale of 4.0. The participants were pleased with the opportunity to participate
in the class (note: most sessions contained a thinking exercise and sufficient
discussion time) and the chance to communicate with the facilitators during
the workshop: both were rated at 3.47. Materials provided were scored
the highest at 3.65. In terms of information and knowledge obtained and
the expected future utilization, both were rated at an average of 3.29.
Hotel room and facilities needed improvement and rated rather low at 2.94.
(See Table 1 the full outcomes)
Participants rated their own competency after the workshop.
‘Situate foresight in the portfolio of knowledge management tools’
was rated at 3.43, followed by their understanding of the tools and their
strengths, limitations and assumptions at 3.31. In terms of understanding
of each key tool, scenario planning and environmental scanning were equally
rated at 3.29, followed by technology roadmapping at 3.24 and delphi polling
at 3.06. Competence in ‘design, logistics and management of foresight
activities’ received the lowest rating at an average of 2.76. From
discussions during the workshop and answers in the final summation questionnaire,
we found that many participants in the course had no experience in foresight
practice before and came with the purpose to be introduced on its concept
and tools; thus it might be the main reason for the low confidence in
managing a foresight project.
Some additional comments:
- Excellent course, beneficial knowledge in materials
provided and experience from Ron and facilitators.
- Good, clear presentations – systematic. Well
done.
- I knew these methodologies before but I have now gained
the clear perspective of these methodologies (from this workshop).
- It would be nice if there is a way to continue the
network of attendants.
- It would be good to have readings in advance.
Issues and areas that participants think worth
learning more about:
- How to analyze the results of foresight activity
- How to operate TRM and scenario processes smoothly
- How to capture outcomes of foresight and how to transfer
the outcomes to implementation
- Successful case studies
Examples of Projects of Part II
Participants:
- Human resource planning
- The future of an S&T organization
- Evaluation of a foresight project
- Improvement of the current national foresight process
Table I: Workshop Evaluation
(Total number of replies: 18)
Table II: Participants’
Self-Evaluation of Achievements
Appendix 1: List
of Participants
Brunei Darussalam
Dr. Hajah Hairuni Haji Mohamed Ali Maricar (Part I & II)
Dean of Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences
Universiti Brunei Darussalam
Mrs Hajah Donnaliza binti Abdullah Puasa (Part I &
II)
Assistant Director, Deputy Permanent Secretary Office
Ministry of Education
Mrs Tengku Hajah Raihar binti Tengku Haji Abdul Kadir
(Part I & II)
Assistant Finance Director, Deputy Permanent Secretary Office
Ministry of Education
Mrs Hajah Roslijah binti Mat Safar (Part I & II)
Senior Education Officer, Department of Planning, Research & Development
Ministry of Education
China
Lorenz Ng (Part I)
Vice President, Research Alliance and Business Development
Eli Lilly Asia Inc
Kewen Jin (Part I)
Consultant
Eli Lilly Asia Inc
Chinese Taipei
Li-Chuan Liao (Part I only)
Deputy Director Dept. of Research and Development
Buh-Gung Guu (Part I only)
Deputy Director Dept. of Control and Evaluation
Iran
Mohammad Halimi (Part I)
Director of Technology Studies Group
Department for Hi-Tech Industries
Japan
Dr Akihiro Fujii (Part I & II)
NISTEP
Malaysia
Cheah Choon Aik (Part I & II)
Principal Assistant Director
Ministry of Science, Technology and the Environment
Dr Norlidah Mohamed Noor (Part I & II)
Principal Analyst, Malaysian Industry-Government Group for High Technology
(MIGHT)
Office of the Science Advisor, Prime Minister’s Department
Mr Rosazizan Rosli (Part I & II)
Special Officer to the Science Advisor
Office of the Science Advisor
Prime Minister’s Department
Thailand
Dr Adisak Vorakunpinij (Part I only)
Assistant Manager
Siam Pulp and Paper Plc
Dr Kalaya Udomvitid (Part I only)
Researcher
National Electronic and Computer Technology Center
Dr Sirichai Kittivarapong (Part I only)
Section Head of ITAP
National Science and Technology Development Agency
Ms Sonthawan Supattaraprateep (Part I only)
Section Head of ITAP
National Science and Technology Development Agency
Mr Wisit Pitiwattanakul (Part I only)
Corporate Product Development and Technology Manager
Siam Pulp and Paper Plc.
Appendix 2: Detailed
Program
Workshop Venue: BANGSUE Meeting Room, 7th Floor, AMARI
WATERGATE Hotel
DAY 1: MONDAY 23 FEBRUARY 2004 08.30-17.30
Registration: 08.00 – 08.30 – outside Bangsue
Room
Session 1 Introduction 08.30 – 10.15
Welcome (20 minutes)
- Dr Chatri Sripaipan, Vice-President of the National
Science and Technology Development Agency of Thailand
- Professor Ron Johnston, Course Leader, Executive
Director of the Australian Center for Innovation, University of Sydney,
Australia
Objectives of the Course (10 minutes)
Participant Introductions (45 minutes)
Participant Objectives - discussion (15 minutes)
Overview of Course - (15 minutes)
** 10.15-10.45 Break **
Session 2 Introduction to the Portfolio of Tools
10.45 – 12.30
The Challenge of the Future (30 minutes)
Introduction to the Tools (30 minutes)
Tool Combinations (15 minutes)
Discussion (15 minutes)
** 12.30 – 14.00 Lunch **
Session 3 Case Exercise 14.00 – 15.30
Phase One: Pre-Foresight (30 minutes)
Phase Two: Foresight (40 minutes)
Phase Three: Post-Foresight (20 minutes)
** 15.30-16.00 Break **
Session 4 Environmental Scanning 16.00 –
17.30
Introduction to Environmental Scanning (presentation 20 mins)
Small Group Exercise (50 minutes)
Report back and Discussion (15 minutes)
Overnight Tasks - (5 minutes)
DAY TWO: TUESDAY 24 FEBRUARY 2004 08.30-15.00
Reprise of Day One and Responses to Overnight Task 08.30-08.50
Session 5 Technology Roadmapping 08.50-10.15
Presentation - (25 minutes)
Group case studies (40 minutes)
Report back and discussion (20 minutes)
** 10.15-10.45 Break **
Session 6 Delphi Polling 10.45-12.30
Presentation of Results from Round I Delphi Exercise (10 minutes)
Presentation (35 minutes)
Round II Delphi Exercise (10 minutes)
Questions and Answers (30 minutes)
** 12.30 – 14.00 Lunch **
Session 7 Scenario Planning - I 14.00 –
15.30
The Rationale and Approaches of Scenario Planning- (presentation 20 minutes)
Discussion (15 minutes)
Establishment of Scenario Parameters - drivers, uncertainties, logics
(group exercise – 55 minutes)
** 15.30-16.00 Break **
Session 8 Scenario Planning - II 16.00-17.30
Construction of Scenarios (group exercise 50 minutes)
Group presentations (15 minutes)
Back-casting (group exercise 15 minutes)
Presentation and discussion (10 minutes)
Presentation of Results from Round II Delphi Exercise
DAY THREE: WEDNESDAY 25 FEBRUARY 2004 08.30 – 12.30
(Excursion 14.00-18.00 and Dinner 18.30 – 20.00)
Reprise of Day Two and Responses to Overnight Task 8.30-8.50
Session 9 Foresight Process Management 08.50-10.15
Presentation and discussion - (50 minutes)
Checklist development and discussion - (35 minutes)
** 10.15-10.45 Break **
Session 10 Implementing the Findings of Future
Management Exercises 10.45-11.45
Presentation of Issues (20 minutes)
Checklist development (group exercise 20 minutes)
Report back and discussion (10 minutes)
Discussion (10 minutes)
Session 11 Summation and Evaluation of Future
Management 11.45-12.15
Workshop Evaluation (10 minutes)
Individual assessment of extent of achievement of competencies (10 minutes)
Discussion (10 minutes)
Presentation of Certificates of Competence (12.15-12.30)
** 12.30 – 14.00 Lunch **
Excursion to visit the Vimanmek Palace.
Please meet in the lobby not later than 14.00. Also called the Castle
in the Clouds, Vimanmek Palace is the summer palace built entirely out
of teakwood commissioned by King Rama V. The 3-story, 81-room mansion
houses impressive furniture and royal jewelry and objects of interest
that were actually used by the king.
Dinner 18.30 at Waterfront Restaurant
END OF PART ONE
PART TWO: THURSDAY 26 AND FRIDAY
27 FEBRUARY 2004
Part Two provides the opportunity for
engaging in a detailed application of appropriate tools to an issue chosen
by the participant. In the space of two intensive days, the following
stages will be completed:
Clarification and refinement of the issue
- Review and selection of tools appropriate to the issue
- Development of a plan to conduct the future management
exercise, including
logistics, stakeholder identification, interface with strategy and policy,
and budget
- Design of a detailed management plan to apply the
future management tools
- Simulated conduct of the future management tools exercise
- Development of a strategy and plan for implementation
Participants are free to work at their
own pace and consult the facilitators whenever they need. Participants
will be invited to share their progress with others and join discussions
to help and support each other, but these activities are entirely optional.
Part two hours:
DAY FOUR: THURSDAY 26 FEBRUARY 2004: 09.00 - 17.30
DAY FIVE: FRIDAY 27 FEBRUARY 2003: 09.00 – 16.00
Morning refreshments served at: 10.30
Afternoon refreshments served at: 15.30
Lunch 12.30 – 14.00
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