Report of "TOOLS FOR MANAGING THE FUTURE: A PORTFOLIO APPROACH" Designed to address the change needs of decision – and policy-makers in this fast-shifting world 21-24 February 2005 Bangkok, Thailand Program Download registration form here and fax or send it to us by email to apectf@nstda.or.th DEVELOP YOUR COMPETENCE IN Using a portfolio of tools: Scenario Planning, Delphi Polling, Technology Roadmapping, Environmental Scanning Understanding the forces that are shaping the future Learning all that is required to plan, design and manage a foresight project effectively Acquiring the know-how to connect foresight successfully to policy and planning WORKSHOP LEADER     Professor Ron Johnston The Workshop will be designed and delivered by Professor Ron Johnston FTSE, an internationally recognised expert in charting the future through the application of the tools of foresight. He is the founder and Executive Director of the Australian Centre for Innovation and Professor in the Faculty of Engineering, University of Sydney, Australia. www.aciic.org.au. Prof Johnston created the first workshop on "Tools to Manage the Future" held in Bangkok in February 2002. This highly successful event attracted 29 participants from 11 different countries (more details at http://www.nstda.or.th). Over the past ten years, he has led more than one hundred futures and foresight projects for private and public sector organisations in Asia, Europe and the Pacific. The focus of these projects have ranged across: Long-term planning Strategic defence and development planning Establishment of research and technology development priorities Identification of preferred socio-economic and cultural futures Service delivery needs and possibilities Business and industry strategies They have been applied to issues as diverse as water supply and management, technology-assisted learning, irrigation, university research, sea transport, global warming, nuclear fuel management, the IT industry, biotechnology, laws of the sea, opportunities for youth, sustainability and knowledge management. He has worked with international organisations (OECD, UN, EC etc) national and state governments, government departments and agencies responsible for industry, agriculture, research, education, trade and infrastructure, NGOs, multi-national and local firms, universities, colleges and schools He is deeply experienced in the imparting of the technical and tacit skills and mindsets necessary for the effective performance of foresight studies, and the mechanisms to translate the results into effective policy, strategy and priorities. WORKSHOP PROGRAM DAY 1 Introduction and Objectives of the Course Identify the future orientation and interests of fellow participants, understand clearly the objectives of the course, and outline desired outcomes. The Use of Foresight around the World There has been a dramatic growth in the variety of applications of foresight in international organizations and in countries around the world. This session will introduce participants to a range of these studies, and what they have achieved. Introduction to the Portfolio of Tools for Managing the Future An overview of the major tools, their methods and assumptions, emphasising the appropriate contexts and objectives for the application of each tool, and tool combinations Competence: a broad understanding of the portfolio of tools and appropriate application Environmental Scanning - the Foundation Steps Explanations of environmental scanning, the key steps in preparing for any approach to managing the future. Through group simulation exercises, participants will examine the techniques, reflect on the challenges involved, and identify the skills and resources required. Competence: organisation and performance of these foundation steps. DAY 2 Scenario Planning All of the tools examined in detail on Day 2 are, in various ways, tools for projecting the future. The major alternative for future management is scenario planning, which generates a range of possible alternative futures and then seeks to establish courses of action that are likely to be robust under this range of possible futures. As the first stage is an exercise in imagination, it benefits from social processes that emphasise creativity, and from engaging a variety of different experiences and insights. Over two sessions, participants will be introduced to the principles and procedures of scenario planning, examine scenario case studies, and develop their own scenarios (in small groups). Competence: organisation, performance and limitations of scenario planning Delphi Polling Learn how and why Delphi surveys are a popular tool for predicting the rate of development of key technologies, asssessing the contribution of technology to socio-economic needs and generating a consensus about research and technology development priorities. Special attention will be paid to organisational and data management requirements. Competence: organisation, performance and limitations of Delphi polling. DAY 3 Technology Roadmapping (TRM) Examine the principles and processes of TRM, a foresight tool used increasingly in the past few years to organise the application of technical and industrial expertise to determining appropriate technological routes to agreed socio-economic and customer needs. Reviews of case studies will show the range of models, including morphology and relevance tree, and the key processes involved. Exercise on a short case study. Competence: design, performance, management and limitations of TRM "Explore Bangkok" DAY 4 Detailed Case Studies of the Application of Future Tools Get a direct 'feel', through case studies based on real events, of just how a foresight can be designed and implemented, the issues that have to be considered along the way, and the range of outcomes that can be achieved. Effective Management of Future Projects Explore the major logistic requirements in the design, performance and implementation of the tools (and tool combinations) and develop a checklist to guide the management and execution of any futures exercise. Competence: logistics and management of future management exercises Implementing the Findings of Future Management Exercises Learn how to ensure that the outputs of future management exercises become embodied in debate and decision-making, for only then can the potential of all these tools be achieved - study a range of approaches to implementation in the public and private sector. Competence: implementation of future management exercises in the public and private sector Summation and Evaluation of Future Management A collective summation of the lessons learnt and competencies developed during the workshop; then develop your personal program for applying your learning and developing your skills further. Download registration form FEES USD 1,250 Fees include all training session, materials, lunch and snack breaks, and welcoming and closing event. Contact: apectf@nstda.or.th PAYMENT METHODS Payment must be made by 18 February 2005 by Money transfer: Payable to "APEC CTF" Account number: 152-1-32678-9 at Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited, Klong Luang Branch Address: 91/48 - 50 Moo 8, T. Klong Nung, A. Klong Luang, P. Pathumthanee 12120, Thailand Please fax copy of the transfer document to Khun Chongchit at (662) 644 8191, please this is a requirement to confirm your attendance. OR Bank draft: A bank draft payable to "APEC CTF". Please mail the draft to Ms Chongchit Charoensingkorn APEC Center for Technology Foresight National Science and Technology Development Agency 73/1 Rama VI Road, Rajdhevee, Bangkok 10400, Thailand. VENUE OF THE WORKSHOP Amari Watergate Hotel 847 Petchburi Road, Pratunam, Rajthevi, Bangkok 10400 Tel: +66 2653 9000 Fax: +66 2653 9045 Email: sales@watergate.amari.com URL: http://watergate@amari.com/watergate/ ACCOMMODATION Period of stay: 20-25 February 2005 Payment: Guest' s account Room rates (including American Breakfast): Superior: single US$87.-net, twin US$92.-net Executive: single US$115.-net, twin US$125.-net Corner suite: single US$130.-net, twin US$130.-net Executive suite: single US$170.-net, twin US$170.-net The above rates are inclusive of 10% service charge and applicable government tax. (currently 7%) (However, in the event of any change in local legislation, the applicable government tax rate shall be used) TAXI OPTIONS Taxi options to Amari Watergate Hotel when you arrive at Don Muang International Airport: A limousine service of Amari Watergate Hotel costs 1,284 baht + 7%VAT per car round rip. Please contact the hotel directly. A service at the airport terminal is also convenient and reliable. Look for taxi service counter of THAI (Thai Airways International) Limousine stand. It costs 500 baht for a 'regular' car service to the hotel and 650 baht for a 'VIP' service (more luxurious car like Volvo). Alternatively, there is a regular taxi meter stand just outside the exit of the terminal. There is a 50 baht surcharge besides fare according to the meter. Download registration form The APEC Center for Technology Foresight he APEC Center for Technology Foresight aims to develop and diffuse foresight capability across APEC. Foresight helps governments, businesses and organisations to establish directions, choose priorities and manage change. Since its launch in February 1998, the CTF has completed five international foresight studies, designed and supported many more studies at national and organisational level, co-hosted an international foresight conference and provided training and consultancy to many APEC member economies. The CTF also runs an APEC Technology Foresight Network, a global database of foresight practitioners, projects and publications (see: http://www.apectf.net). The CTF is a project of the Industrial Science and Technology Working Group of APEC. It is hosted by the National Science and Technology Development Agency of Thailand.

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